जॉन जे. मियरशाइमर John J. Mearsheimer
Ideas
Offensive realism
He starts from an anarchic world with no authority above states. No state can be sure of another’s intentions. So great powers try to maximise their share of power. Unlike Kenneth Waltz he holds that states seek hegemony and not just enough security. He calls this a tragedy because no one is to blame.
the best way to ensure their security is to achieve hegemony now
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001)
Wikipedia: John Mearsheimer · John Mearsheimer: Biography
The stopping power of water
He argues that oceans make it almost impossible to project power across them. So no state can rule the globe. The best a great power can do is dominate its own region. It then works to stop any rival from dominating another. He calls this offshore balancing and sees the Monroe Doctrine as its American form.
Liberal hegemony as a delusion
He calls the post-Cold War drive to spread democracy and open markets liberal hegemony. In The Great Delusion he says it was bound to fail. Nationalism and balance-of-power politics are stronger forces. In 2019 he predicted a thin international order beside rival China-led and US-led orders.
Wikipedia: John Mearsheimer · UChicago Center in Beijing: Mearsheimer speaks on The Great Delusion (24 October 2019)
NATO expansion and Ukraine
In 1993 he urged Ukraine to keep its nuclear weapons. From 2014 he argued that NATO and EU expansion plus democracy promotion threatened Russia. He says great powers fight rivals on their borders out of fear. In 2025 he said Ukraine would have to accept neutrality and the loss of its east.
Ukrainian nuclear weapons are the only reliable deterrent to Russian aggression.
Foreign Affairs (1993)
Wikipedia: John Mearsheimer · USSC: Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault. Foreign Affairs (September/October 2014) · Foreign Affairs: Faulty Powers. McFaul, Sestanovich and Mearsheimer (November/December 2014) · The Economist: John Mearsheimer on why the West is principally responsible for the Ukrainian crisis (11 March 2022) · Mearsheimer Substack: New Yorker interview on Ukraine (12 March 2025)
Containing China
He holds that a rich China will seek to dominate Asia as the US dominates the Western Hemisphere. He calls engagement with Beijing a colossal strategic mistake. He says war is not inevitable but security competition is. He argues the US should contain China with Asian partners and keep Russia out of Beijing’s arms.
a colossal strategic mistake
The Inevitable Rivalry, Foreign Affairs (2021)
Foreign Affairs: The Inevitable Rivalry (November/December 2021) · Foreign Affairs: A Rival of America’s Making? The debate over Washington’s China strategy (March/April 2022) · Wikipedia: John Mearsheimer · Business Today: ‘Indians are smart’. Mearsheimer on Trump and Asia strategy (8 September 2025)
India as a balancer
He expects India to join Japan, Vietnam and others in a US-led coalition to balance China. He sees the partnership as interest and not friendship. He praises India’s non-alignment as smart. In 2025 he called Trump’s tariffs over Russian oil a colossal blunder that pushed New Delhi towards Beijing and Moscow.
If the Chinese threat were to disappear, then the US and India would not be anywhere near as friendly.
The Indian Express (April 2024)
Wikipedia: John Mearsheimer · Swarajya: Mearsheimer to The Indian Express on US–India ties (15 April 2024) · UChicago Social Sciences: Indian Express interview with John Mearsheimer (18 April 2024) · Antiwar.com: Mearsheimer on CNN-News18. Picking a fight with India is just dumb (21 August 2025) · Telangana Today (IANS): ‘Colossal blunder’. Mearsheimer criticises Trump’s India strategy (2 September 2025) · Business Today: ‘Indians are smart’. Mearsheimer on Trump and Asia strategy (8 September 2025)
Why leaders lie
He finds that leaders rarely lie to other states. Trust between states is too low for lies to work. They lie more often to their own people. Democratic leaders do so more than autocrats. He names five kinds of international lie and judges them by use and not by morality.
How states think
With Sebastian Rosato he defines a rational state by its process and not its results. Leaders must reason from credible theories. The state must reach decisions through deliberation. On that test they find most states rational most of the time. They expect Washington and Beijing to act rationally too.
Sadly, rationality is no guarantee of peace.
Foreign Affairs (2023)
Foreign Affairs: Thinking Like a State. Yarhi-Milo and Mearsheimer–Rosato exchange (2023) · Lawfare: What makes a state rational? Review of How States Think (24 October 2023)
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